Market Update:

Natural gas markets fell sharply this week following a third consecutive bearish EIA storage report. The August 2026 NYMEX contract settled at $3.012/MMBtu on July 9, down $0.200 on the day, after EIA reported a 61 Bcf injection — 10 Bcf above the Platts consensus of 51 Bcf. Henry Hub spot for July 10 flows was $3.145/MMBtu. The national average settled at $2.560/MMBtu.

 August 2026 NYMEX closed Thursday at $3.012

·       High for the day $3.244

·       Low for the day $2991

 Early trading for the prompt month is trading at $2.935

·       https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.html

·       https://www.fxempire.com/commodities/natural-gas

Freeport LNG announced it will begin major maintenance starting July 10 through late August, putting roughly 20 cargoes/month of export capacity at risk. Middle East tensions continue to affect roughly 20% of global LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping international prices elevated — the August JKM benchmark settled at $17.976/MMBtu on July 9.

In a positive development, the first LNG cargo from Sempra's Energia Costa Azul terminal in Baja California departed July 7 for South Korea, adding new Pacific Basin supply. Domestically, Permian Basin production averaged 25 Bcf/d in early July, up from 23.9 Bcf/d in June, helped by the Gulf Coast Express expansion that came online June 23.

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EIA Storage Report:

EIA reported a 61 Bcf injection for the week ended July 3, bringing total working gas to 2,983 Bcf. The build came in 10 Bcf above expectations and widened the surplus to the five-year average to 185 Bcf— the highest since September 2025. Inventories are now just 15 Bcf below year-ago levels. Looking ahead, the consensus estimate for the week ending July 10 is approximately 43 Bcf.

Weather:

Power sector gas demand averaged 44.2 Bcf/d for the week ended July 3, up 4.5 Bcf/d week over week. NOAA's 8-14 day outlook calls for above-normal temperatures across much of the South, Southeast, and Central US through late July, with the August outlook showing 1-4 degrees F above normal for most of the continental U.S. Despite the summer heat, the widening storage surplus continues to cap price upside.

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